For the first time in years, first home buyers are asking a different question. Not "how do I keep up with prices?" but "should I wait for them to fall further?"
It's a fair question. Here's what's happening and how to think about it.
What the data says
According to Cotality's Home Value Index for September 2026:
- National dwelling values fell 1.1% in the month, the sixth monthly fall in a row
- Values are 5.2% below their March 2026 peak
- Sydney is down 7.0% over the year, Melbourne down 6.2%
- Perth (+10.1%) and Darwin (+11.9%) are still up over the year
- Regional values rose 5.6% over the year while capitals fell 1.8%
- Homes are taking longer to sell, a median 39 days compared with 23 a year earlier
Meanwhile, the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, its fourth rise this year, and said it could raise it again if needed.
Why waiting is tempting
- Prices in Sydney and Melbourne could keep easing while rates stay high
- More listings and slower sales mean more negotiating power over time
- If rates rise again in November, borrowing power drops further
Why waiting has costs too
You're paying rent meanwhile. At $650 a week, that's about $34,000 a year that builds no equity.
Nobody can pick the bottom. Markets usually turn before the headlines do. By the time it feels safe, competition often returns.
Rate cuts tend to lift prices. If inflation eases and the RBA eventually cuts, prices often rise quickly as borrowing power improves. Some economists have flagged possible cuts in 2027, though that's far from certain.
Schemes can change. The 5% Deposit Scheme and NSW stamp duty exemptions are generous right now. Price caps and eligibility rules are reviewed regularly.
Better questions to ask
Rather than "is this the bottom?", ask:
- Can I comfortably afford repayments today, and if rates rise another 0.50%? If yes, the timing risk is smaller.
- Do I plan to stay at least 5 to 7 years? Over that horizon, short-term falls matter much less.
- Am I buying at a fair price for today's market? Use recent sold prices, not last year's.
- Do I have a buffer? A few months of repayments in an offset account protects you from shocks.
If you answer yes to all four, buying in a softer market can actually be an advantage: less competition, more time for due diligence, and room to negotiate.
What a softer market means for you as a buyer
- Make offers with conditions. Finance and building inspection clauses are more acceptable to vendors when buyers are scarce.
- Negotiate on price. Properties sitting for 40-plus days often have motivated vendors.
- Take your time. Fewer competing buyers means fewer rushed decisions.
- Get valuations right. Lenders may value conservatively in a falling market, so don't overpay relative to recent sales.
When waiting makes sense
- Your job or income is uncertain
- Your deposit is very small and you'd have no buffer
- You're likely to move within a couple of years
- Repayments would leave you stretched even without further rate rises
Frequently asked questions
Will prices keep falling in 2026?
Nobody knows for sure. Higher rates usually slow price growth, but supply shortages and population growth support prices over the longer term. Focus on what you can afford.
Should I fix my rate if I buy now?
That depends on your situation. Fixed rates have already risen in anticipation of further hikes. We cover this in our post on fixed versus variable rates.
Is it better to buy in a regional area?
Regional markets have held up better in 2026, but buy where you want to live and where the fundamentals are sound.
Unsure whether now's the right time for you? Call Finfident on 0424 545 654. We'll stress-test your numbers so you can decide with confidence, not fear.
This article is general information only and doesn't take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures, rates and scheme rules are current as at October 2026 and can change. Finfident Finance Brokers (ABN 94 679 280 801) is Credit Representative 569374 of Outsource Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 131 090 705), Australian Credit Licence 384324.