Spring is traditionally the busiest time of year for property. This year it's looking different. Higher interest rates have cooled demand across most capital cities, while some markets continue to rise.
Here's where things stand based on Cotality's September 2026 Home Value Index.
The national picture
- National values fell 1.1% in September, the sixth monthly decline in a row
- Values are 5.2% below the March 2026 peak
- Over the past 12 months, national values are flat (0.0%)
Cotality's Tim Lawless described the downturn as reflecting "affordability constraints, higher interest rates, elevated living costs, and weaker consumer sentiment", and said the most likely outcome was "a gradual drift lower in housing values rather than a material downturn".
City by city
| City | September change | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | -1.4% | -7.0% |
| Melbourne | -0.7% | -6.2% |
| Brisbane | -1.5% | not reported in summary |
| Darwin | +0.4% | +11.9% |
Over the year, Perth (+10.1%) and Darwin (+11.9%) remain the standout performers, while Canberra is down 1.6%. Darwin was the only capital to rise in September.
Sydney values are 8.6% below their February peak. Melbourne is 7.2% below its November 2025 high and remains below its March 2022 record.
Brisbane, after a strong run, recorded the sharpest monthly fall in September.
Regional markets are outperforming
Regional dwelling values rose 5.6% over the year, compared with a 1.8% fall across the capitals. That said, momentum is slowing in the regions too, with 71% of regional sub-markets recording a monthly decline in September.
Fewer sales, more stock
- Sales volumes were down 19.1% over the year nationally, and 13.3% below the five-year average. Sydney sales were down 26.5% and Brisbane down 27.2%.
- Time on market has stretched to a median 39 days, from 23 a year earlier.
- Advertised stock across the capitals is up 23.1%, even though new listings are down 9.2%. Homes are sitting longer.
What's behind it
- Interest rates: four RBA rises in 2026 took the cash rate to 4.60%
- Borrowing power: higher assessment rates reduce how much buyers can borrow
- Affordability: prices were at or near record highs relative to incomes earlier in the year
- Sentiment: cost-of-living pressures and global uncertainty weigh on confidence
What it means for buyers
- More negotiating power. Homes are taking longer to sell, and vendors may be more flexible.
- Less competition. Fewer buyers at open homes and auctions.
- Conservative valuations. Lenders' valuers may be cautious, so don't overpay relative to recent sales.
- First home buyers: the 5% Deposit Scheme and stamp duty concessions remain generous.
What it means for owners
- Refinancing: check your LVR before applying. Falling values could push you above 80%.
- Selling: price realistically based on recent sales, not peak-market expectations.
- Long-term owners: short-term falls matter less if you're staying put.
What to watch
- The RBA meeting on 3 November 2026, where some economists expect another rise
- September quarter CPI on 28 October
- Listings over spring: whether stock keeps building
Frequently asked questions
Will prices keep falling?
Cotality's base case is a gradual drift lower rather than a sharp fall. Interest rates and inflation are the key factors.
Is now a good time to buy?
It can be, if you can comfortably afford repayments at higher rates and plan to hold long term. Market timing is hard; affordability and buffers matter more.
Why are Perth and Darwin still rising?
More affordable price points, strong population and jobs growth, and tight supply have kept these markets resilient.
Buying or refinancing this spring? Call Finfident on 0424 545 654. We'll help you make decisions based on today's market, not last year's.
This article is general information only and doesn't take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures, rates and scheme rules are current as at October 2026 and can change. Finfident Finance Brokers (ABN 94 679 280 801) is Credit Representative 569374 of Outsource Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 131 090 705), Australian Credit Licence 384324.